It’s highly unlikely Pep Guardiola will get sacked after this season, but let’s imagine a “worst-case” scenario where cracks start to show and the pressure mounts:
Why Guardiola Might Be on Thin Ice (In This Hypothetical Scenario)
- Unrealistic Expectations Catching Up
- Guardiola has set an impossibly high standard at Manchester City, and even the slightest dip in performance—such as failing to win the Premier League or Champions League—could lead to questions about his future.
- After winning the treble in 2023, anything less might feel like a letdown to the board, fans, and media.
- Champions League Dependence
- City’s owners value European glory above all else, and if Guardiola fails to defend the Champions League title or suffers a humiliating exit, some could argue his “project” is losing momentum.
- With so much invested in him and the squad, a failure to deliver could amplify the pressure.
- Tactical Stubbornness
- Critics might point to Guardiola’s occasional overthinking in big games, which has cost City in previous seasons. If this trend resurfaces and leads to critical losses, the blame will fall squarely on his shoulders.
- Squad Fatigue and Dressing Room Issues
- Guardiola’s intense style has been known to wear players out over time. If the team’s form dips and rumors of player unrest or fatigue emerge, questions about his long-term viability could arise.
- Losing key figures like Ilkay Gündoğan and Riyad Mahrez in the summer of 2023 might further expose weaknesses in squad cohesion.
- Ownership Demands
- City’s owners have poured billions into the club, and they expect dominance at every level. If Guardiola shows signs of losing his edge, or if newer, younger managerial talent emerges elsewhere, the board might consider a change.
The Sacking Narrative
- If City were to endure a trophyless season or suffer embarrassing defeats, the media and fans could turn on Guardiola, framing him as having “run out of ideas” or overstayed his welcome.
- Rival fans and pundits would revel in the narrative that Guardiola “can’t succeed without a blank check” and is only as good as his squad, potentially adding fuel to the fire.
Reality Check
Despite all the above, Guardiola is one of the most successful and respected managers in football history. It would take an absolute catastrophe—like City falling out of the top four and enduring a major dressing room revolt—for the club to even consider sacking him. His track record and relationship with the owners give him immense job security, even if the season isn’t perfect.
In short, Guardiola getting sacked would be more about sensationalism than reality, barring an extraordinary collapse.
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